In this second article of the series, we look at some objections that may be raised against the theory. We then present defining characteristics of the different archetypes as well as of the generational turnings or stages. This is done so that the reader may be able to identify the general project environment (or “terroire”) without having to rely on artificial boundary markers.

A common reaction to such a topic as generations theory is often “hogwash”, or “hocus pocus”.

So, is it? Even pointing out that it is propagated in august publications such as Harvard Business Review, or that it is a major determinant for the conclusions made by major research organisations, may not convince some sceptics.

Projects are first and foremost human endeavours. Machines and mainstream science may be highly predictable but, to quote theologian and former director of the School of Philosophy at the University of Southern California, Dallas Willard: “There are three spheres where the law of God does not rule – the political sphere, the social sphere, and the human heart.”

In fact, even in the natural sciences this human influence is felt. In the days before automobile factories were almost fully automated, we could speak of Friday-afternoon or Monday-morning cars. Or consider the appalling quality that many companies produced in the former Soviet Union and its satellite states. Let alone bridges that suddenly collapse or buildings that are destroyed in catastrophes because of the human factor.

We are not here concerned with the predictability of natural science, but the other three spheres. And they change.

East Germany was a prime example. In the pre-war years, it was renowned for many of its endeavours, and now it has restored much of that again; but during the “communist experiment”, it was a disaster.

Even England: Many older readers will remember the dark time of the pre-Margaret Thatcher years when England seemed to do its best to become part of what some called the “fourth world”. People credit her with the reversal that followed.

Many historians, though, suggest it was rather the ebb and flow of history. And in this, they support the views of generations theorists.

It may seem quackery, but I would like to posit that this is simply because it is not generally well enough understood – yet.

Even much of mythology can be shown to be the retelling of factual events by people who did not understand what they were looking at.

Since project managers are required to provide leadership inside the times of change and resulting turmoil, and are expected to bring order to this, I believe it is a critical area to be understood.

A second objection is that all people are different. And if people are different, then so are the societies they create for themselves.

This is true, but that does not change the fact that we are more similar than we would like to credit. As every detective knows, even though every fingerprint is unique, all they need to do is confirm 16 points to convict a felon.

And as unpredictable as Willard’s three spheres are, psychologist John Gottman can say with confidence that there are a handful of predictors of marital success, and will go further to say that if only one (contempt) is present, the marriage is doomed.

These convergences have made much money for popular writer and observer Malcolm Gladwell, whose articles and books (Blink, The Tipping Point, Outliers, What the Dog Saw) have sold millions of copies. Because they seem so self-evident, once considered.

A third objection is that what may be true for Americans is not necessarily true at the same time for other nations.

When I was a mainframe computer operator in the early 1970s, there used to be a failure almost every day.

Within an hour, the trusty IBM engineer would appear. If the problem was not mechanical, he would plug in his oscilloscope and observe the sine waves as they coursed across the screen. I was fascinated by how they diverged and converged.

Many older readers will remember a fad that was popular during the ‘80s – biorhythms, which could apparently predict whether you were going to have a good day or not. They seemed to do so; then suddenly, they could not – and the fad waned.

Douglas Forbes, who popularised the Human Pin Code, which does seem to have some consistent theory behind it, explained that the problem of biorhythms was that the wrong sine period was used.

Thus, what we saw was such a convergence of different factors that could not be sustained.

So, there do seem to be explanations for why this theory is not merely another fad.

And similar convergences do occur.

One reason is that major shocks can bring this about.

John J. Xenakis (Generational Dynamics) refers to “generational wars” and “non-generational wars” (which occur outside of crisis turnings). So, for example, the crisis turning for Russia was at the time of the Revolution. This could explain why the heart of the Soviet Union was not in World War 2 initially (until it became a matter of survival).

The same was true of the United States.

On the other hand, it is interesting that China experienced a crisis turning around the time of WW2 (largely unnoticed by most people) – Mao’s Long March.

Howe and Strauss point out that in Anglo-American history (their investigation covered the period from 1433 to present), there has been an unbroken series of turnings: High, Awakening, Unravelling, Crisis.

Except for over the Civil War Crisis – then there were no Heroes. (I recommend you get hold of the first article in the last issue of The Project Manager for a diagrammatic representation of these generations and turnings.)

Since it is the generation (Hero, Artist, Prophet, Nomad) that determines the turning, this means there can be a shorter or longer complete cycle of generations or saeculum (the time for a complete renewal of human population).

The research by Howe and Strauss further points out that while a saeculum is generally around 80 years, general human life expectancy also shrinks and expands over history. So, for example, the average period from a point in an Awakening to a Crisis is about 40 years – the shortest they observed in their almost 600-year long study was 32 years; the longest was 52 years.

A shock like WW2 was the first truly global conflict in terms of direct impact on every person’s life on the planet. The subsequent American economic, political and cultural hegemony can simply have reinforced that and can have resulted in a global alignment or convergence.

Be that as it may, we will focus, in this second article, on how to identify the generational archetypes and turnings.

As the X-ers (Nomads now entering their most productive and influential period, between ages 40 and 62) and Millennials (Heroes now starting to throw their weight around as they pass through their 20s and 30s) take centre stage in politics and the social (enterprise) spheres; older moralistic Boomer (now in their 50s and 60s) decision-makers and project managers find the pragmatic X-ers, who make up a large part of their teams, difficult to understand and work with.

These Nomad X-ers seem to have no values, are not ready to follow the time-proven rules of past successful projects (which, by the way, the Boomers had to learn). Actually, they do have strong value systems that drive their actions, just as any other generation – simply different.

The obsession with reshaping the world of the Prophet Boomers, which drove an Awakening turning, has now changed to the money-making personal obsessions of the pragmatic Nomad X-ers, as they have passed through their abandoned and alienated stages.

Life, however, is not as simple as that.

What may be true at macro generational level (and generations are bound to the macro cultural level – of a country, if not globally, all of the time), may not be true at the micro level: project or programme/organisational level.

The culture of a programme or project is more than the sum of the people who make it up, but they are the major contributors to its culture, as many studies have shown.

Thus, the aim of this article is to reflect on how to identify the culture of a project by identifying the generational archetypes of the team members.

It is particularly satisfying to me when I see the close correlation between generational archetypes and the (David) Keirsey Temperament Theory (in this, I differ from Strauss and Howe, whose comparisons seem to be a bit confused because they link them to traditional Jungian theory).

Where this is relevant, is in trying to understand the overall ‘personality’ of a generation – in other words, if the generation were a single person, then that is the temperament this person would most likely have.

Similar to Keirsey, they provide useful typing guidelines (see Figures 1 and 2), which I have adapted.

Consider that around 2011, the early Boomers (Prophets), born between 1946 and 1964, will be entering Elderhood. In all likelihood, they already have grandchildren and they have undergone changes in approach – from being the headstrong children of the current saeculum’s generation of Heroes (GIs), to having butted heads with the establishment run by the midlife generation of GIs, to seeing the error of their ways and now entering a period of reflection that will result in some wisdom.

The Boomers, who have sired the next saeculum’s generation of Heroes (Millennials) in their young adulthood, will presently be struggling with the generation of Nomads (X-ers) who are increasingly taking over their positions of influence and power. These alienated and pragmatic Nomads (X-ers) find the moralising of the Boomers, and what is perceived as their narcissistic presumption, increasingly tedious. The X-ers perceive this as preventing them from achieving their own goals and dreams.

The Boomers, who have started seeing the error of their ways, kick against what they perceive as materialism – and this causes a great deal of conflict.

This is similar to the attitude of the emerging world, which is upset by the “arrogant Americans” who have used up the world’s resources to create the consumer society they have, and now do not want to grant them, the emerging nations, the same privilege.

The fact that the Boomers can now see where the profligacy is leading, cuts no ice. The X-ers want it – and they want it now, regardless of the consequences.

Actually, the problem is that the Boomers were small children in the aftermath of the last Crisis turning, and thus had some awareness of how terrible it was. The X-ers, on the other hand, have never experienced anything like that. If they know about things such as the 1929 Crash, WW1, WW2, the Great Depression, and so on, these are mere concepts and, anyway, “We will not allow the same to happen to us. We are masters of our own future”.

Their young, formative years were spent in the prosperous period shaped by the current saeculum’s generation of Artists (Silents) who, through their optimistic view of endless possibilities, were responsible for the last Awakening and resulting prosperity.

Consider that the current saeculum’s Heroes (GIs) were born between 1908 and 1929 – thus, during the previous saeculum’s Unravelling. They sired the generation of Artists during the difficult Crisis years of 1929 to 1946, while they fought during the generational wars and other crises of that period.

They then oversaw the rebuilding of nations and economies during the next period – the High of the current saeculum in their midlife years (aged 42 to 62), thus preparing the ground for a new Awakening.

By the time that path to prosperity has been restored during the High (around 1964), they are entering elderhood.

As they enter elderhood, their Artist children have sired for them a generation of Prophet grandchildren, who will provide the energy to ensure the prosperity of the Awakening. And so the cycle continues.

As each person passes through life, so his/her life focus (Stauss and Howe call this the “social role”) changes (Figure 2). In the childhood years (youth), the focus is on growing up. He/she receives nurture, and basic values start forming. Education is obviously a major part of this.

As a young adult, the focus is on starting and raising a family, as well as a career. It is a period of vitality and a different type of growth.

As they apply their newly acquired skills, they start applying the values they acquired from parents, family, friends, society, and so on.

They make up the majority of the energetic workforce.

By the time they have reached midlife, at around 42, many things have been settled, or are in the process of being done.

Many will be passing through a midlife crisis when they question their values, and then adjust or redefine them. Or perhaps simply accept.

The focus is then on exercising the power they now have.

When they reach elderhood, the focus changes to providing leadership (good or bad). Most will be at the apex of their influence during this period, and from now on that will start to wane. Some will then focus on passing on what they have, others will want to cling on to it for as long as possible.

The close observer will then notice something: The so-called theories of management are actually closely connected with these Turnings (which, of course, are determined by the phase in which the most influential Archetypes are).

So society passes through generational phases, or turnings.

First Turning

During the First Turning, or High, the damage done during the preceding Fourth Turning, or Crisis, is repaired – and rebuilding takes place.

The energy is provided by the young Artists (in their sensitive phase), the managers are the Heroes (in their powerful phase) and leadership is provided by the Nomads (in their tough phase).

A new generation of Prophets is being born. Having experienced the ravages of the preceding Crisis, they are certain about many things, including what was wrong with society, and what needs to be done to fix it.

Orders are given and accepted, and the outlook becomes increasingly positive.

It is not difficult to imagine that the preferred management style will be Theory X.

Second Turning

This then rings in the Second Turning, or Awakening, when economies experience booming times (relatively speaking).

The powerful Heroes, now in their civic phase, replace the ageing Nomads. The leadership focuses on building the “inner man”.

Theory Y starts dominating.

From a management point of view, the Artists – in their indecisive phase – start questioning management styles of the past.

Visionary Prophets now increasingly are the workers. They have strong views on what brought about the preceding Crisis, and so they are ready to start challenging the ‘old order’.

A new generation of abandoned Nomads is being born and educated. Their Prophet parents are simply too busy out there making money and ‘creating wealth’ to spend much time with them.

In this prosperity, younger people start questioning the norms, values and decisions of their elders. Following your conscience, rather than the rules of the elders, becomes the guiding light.

Institutions are seen as the enemy, and are generally attacked. But there is a general sense of euphoria, as if this prosperity can never end.

Third Turning

Following on this period of social unrest but economic prosperity, many accepted norms and values are starting to look jaded and so the Third Turning, or Unravelling, starts emerging.

The powerful Heroes are now being replaced by empathic Artists. (Are we then surprised that emotional intelligence should become the dominant management theory?)

Most management roles are now being filled by moralistic Prophets.

Cracks start forming in the prosperous economies, and much debating is done about what is right and wrong, and whether the present lifestyles can be maintained.

Families are splintered, thanks to the focus on business rather than the home; and because the gap between gender roles has almost disappeared, many women are now filling management and leadership positions in business and society.

A general sense of cynicism about the future starts to permeate society.

The alienated Nomads are now increasingly making up the workforce and, because of the general deterioration in family structures, they bring this same disconnectedness with them into their place of business.

Titles mean very little to them, and each person starts looking out for him or herself: “WIIFM”, or “What’s In It For Me” could be the war cry of this stage.

Recognising that they let their children down by not spending more time with them, the elders are motivated by a sense of guilt, and so little resistance is offered to the cries for the “rights” of almost every group.

Religion and other normative structures are under continuous attack because no one should “tell us what to do. I have a right to decide for myself.”

A new generation of protected Heroes is being born to these alienated Nomads.

Fourth Turning

This has set the scene for the Fourth Turning, or next Crisis.

The moralistic Prophets are now progressing into their wise phase, replacing the empathetic Artists. They focus on trying to rebuild the wrongs of the previous stages, but it is too little too late.

Management style increasingly becomes laissez-faire, and no single model dominates.

Now that the pragmatic Nomads have the power, their ideals are championed – contrary views are stigmatised and wrongs must be righted everywhere.

In this, they are supported by the heroic Heroes, who increasingly make up the workforce. They realise little that their heroism will soon be engaged in a bitter struggle through a generational war, which will follow the collapse of
many institutions.

In the six Anglo-American cycles that Strauss and Howe studied from 1433 until present, every one has included a devastating Crisis stage that involved total war, following on economic and other turmoil.

During this stage, a new generation of suffocated Artists is being born to the heroic Heroes, and so a saeculum speeds to an end and a new one starts.

Conclusion

How ever one may view the theory or debate its ‘scientificness’, it is a model that has substance and provides an explanation for why things are the way they are.

In the practical world of project management, to quote a colleague (a semi-retired editor and writer for a mega-circulation international magazine): “You are doomed if you do not pay attention to this, and you are doomed if this is all you pay attention to.”

In the next article, we will focus on the implications that all this has for project managers. 

Elmar Roberg

Roberg has almost 40 years’ experience managing projects, programmes and portfolios in a variety of industries. He can be reached via e-mail: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .

References

Graeme Codrington, Sue Grant-Marshall. Mind the Gap. Penguin Books. 2004. (For a South African perspective.)

John J. Xenakis. Generational Dynamics for Historians. eBook. www.generationaldynamics.com

Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America’s Destiny. eBook.

William Strauss, Neil Howe. The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy. Broadway Books. 1997.

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